Fallout from the Israel/Hezbollah/Lebanon war ?

Seeing that the 1982 Israeli Invasion of Lebanon resulted in the creation of Hezbollah I’m now pondering what the result of the 2006 invasion will be.

Having watched tonights news on the ABC and seen what’s happening with people returning to the south of Lebanon to confront the devastation I’m wondering whether this will result in Hezbollah winning the next election in Lebanon ?

That would really put a cat amongst the pidgeons in the region, but given the results of Israels interventions in the West Bank and Gaza I wouldn’t be that suprised..

3 thoughts on “Fallout from the Israel/Hezbollah/Lebanon war ?

  1. Interesting, the NYT is reporting:

    BEIRUT, Lebanon, Aug. 15 — As stunned Lebanese returned Tuesday over broken roads to shattered apartments in the south, it increasingly seemed that the beneficiary of the destruction was most likely to be Hezbollah.

    Nehme Y. Tohme, a member of Parliament from the anti-Syrian reform bloc and the country’s minister for the displaced, said he had been told by Hezbollah officials that when the shooting stopped, Iran would provide Hezbollah with an “unlimited budget” for reconstruction.

    While the Israelis began their withdrawal, hundreds of Hezbollah members spread over dozens of villages across southern Lebanon began cleaning, organizing and surveying damage. Men on bulldozers were busy cutting lanes through giant piles of rubble. Roads blocked with the remnants of buildings are now, just a day after a cease-fire began, fully passable.

    A real hearts and minds operation..

  2. Hmmm……I wonder if the truce will hold? For now the two combatants are licking wounds. But when it’s over and done will htey get up and fight again?

    Trying to be impartial (believe me it’s kinda hard for me) I can’t help but to notice that pics of destructions in Lebanon will be like recruiting posters for AlQaeda/Hisbullah (or whatever variation of that name you prefer ^_^)

    Now onto Palestine too…..Scary if war really expands.


  3. I’m not optimistic about the truce holding, especially given that Israel has already broken the ceasefire (although they claim they’re allowed under the agreement, but I don’t actually think that’s true).

    I think it’s wrong to conflate Hezbollah and Al Quaeda, they’ve arisen from very different origins. That’s not to say that they will play off each other if its to their advantage (and Al Quaeda already attempted that during the conflict).

    It’s a horrendous mess, and it’s unlikely to get much better in the near future..

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